Personally I find the 50 days moving average a clearer signal compared to 20 and 200 days.
Using the 50 days moving average, both S&P and STI are clearly in a downtrend since Aug 2011.
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^STI#symbol=^sti;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=1;logscale=off;source=;
http://sg.finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=^GSPC#symbol=^gspc;range=1y;compare=;indicator=sma+volume;charttype=candlestick;crosshair=on;ohlcvalues=0;logscale=off;source=;
Better to sit tight and wait for reversal before picking up more stocks.
Thursday, October 6, 2011
Tuesday, August 16, 2011
7Twelve Portfolio
Came across this interesting portfolio concept.
Basically, it entails investing in 7 asset classes, and 12 funds that constitutes the 7 asset classes.
More details can be found here: http://www.7twelveportfolio.com/index.html
Basically, it entails investing in 7 asset classes, and 12 funds that constitutes the 7 asset classes.
More details can be found here: http://www.7twelveportfolio.com/index.html
Saturday, August 13, 2011
The latest crisis - A reversion to mean
Latest Crisis - The Cause
So what causes this latest round of crisis? Erring on over-simplifying the complicated issues, it is basically due to U.S. getting to expensive, and we are in the process of reverting to the mean.
U.S had grown so expensive over the past few decades that many of her companies find it cheaper to outsource the jobs and manufacturing to developing countries such as India, China, and SE Asia.
However, these outsourcing of jobs and manufacturing means that U.S has to pay the workers and capital equipment in these foreign countries, and import the end products. Both resulted in U.S sustaining trade deficit.
Is U.S at risk of defaulting
Again, we might be over-simplifying the issues. However, U.S debts are denominated in US$, and U.S can simply print more US$ to pay off the debt. Thus, U.S can choose not to default infinitely.
Next question - would the creditors continue to accept U.S debt? As long as U.S is able to repay the interest, probably. U.S debt is around 14T. GDP is also around 14T. As such, U.S should be able to sustain the interest payment as long as the tax revenue is greater than the required interest. Besides, they still have the printing press. Also, the creditors probably don't have much alternatives either.
What is at risk will be the internal budget such as healthcare, defence spending, etc. If these budgets are cut, jobs might be lost. However, this is simply a re-allocation of resources from shrinking industries to growth industries, as long as capitalism continues to function.
So what is happening now
Reversion to mean. U.S is printing money to repay the interest and debt. This results in inflation and devaluation of US$. And this means that companies that outsourced their jobs and manufacturing will find it more and more expensive to pay the foreign countries. Over time, the jobs and manufacturing will be brought back onshore. Employment will be created. Re-allocation of resources will take place from govt sector to private sector.
Potential Impact
Developing countries that currently hosting the jobs and manufacturing will experience unemployment.
What is our strategy
Personally, I'll switch out of emerging markets and bet on a U.S recovery. The best way to accomplish this is to diversify using U.S ETF.
For singapore market, these are a few candidates traded on SGX:
3) IS S&P500 10US$@ (gives ~2% dividends)
4) Lyxor ETF Dow Jones Industrial Average
So what causes this latest round of crisis? Erring on over-simplifying the complicated issues, it is basically due to U.S. getting to expensive, and we are in the process of reverting to the mean.
U.S had grown so expensive over the past few decades that many of her companies find it cheaper to outsource the jobs and manufacturing to developing countries such as India, China, and SE Asia.
However, these outsourcing of jobs and manufacturing means that U.S has to pay the workers and capital equipment in these foreign countries, and import the end products. Both resulted in U.S sustaining trade deficit.
Is U.S at risk of defaulting
Again, we might be over-simplifying the issues. However, U.S debts are denominated in US$, and U.S can simply print more US$ to pay off the debt. Thus, U.S can choose not to default infinitely.
Next question - would the creditors continue to accept U.S debt? As long as U.S is able to repay the interest, probably. U.S debt is around 14T. GDP is also around 14T. As such, U.S should be able to sustain the interest payment as long as the tax revenue is greater than the required interest. Besides, they still have the printing press. Also, the creditors probably don't have much alternatives either.
What is at risk will be the internal budget such as healthcare, defence spending, etc. If these budgets are cut, jobs might be lost. However, this is simply a re-allocation of resources from shrinking industries to growth industries, as long as capitalism continues to function.
So what is happening now
Reversion to mean. U.S is printing money to repay the interest and debt. This results in inflation and devaluation of US$. And this means that companies that outsourced their jobs and manufacturing will find it more and more expensive to pay the foreign countries. Over time, the jobs and manufacturing will be brought back onshore. Employment will be created. Re-allocation of resources will take place from govt sector to private sector.
Potential Impact
Developing countries that currently hosting the jobs and manufacturing will experience unemployment.
What is our strategy
Personally, I'll switch out of emerging markets and bet on a U.S recovery. The best way to accomplish this is to diversify using U.S ETF.
For singapore market, these are a few candidates traded on SGX:
1) DBXT STOXX GLOB DIV 100 ETF 10 (gives ~5-6% dividend based on 2011. Synthetic ETF)
2) db x-trackers S&P 500 ETF (dividends are re-invested back to fund. Synthetic ETF)3) IS S&P500 10US$@ (gives ~2% dividends)
4) Lyxor ETF Dow Jones Industrial Average
Saturday, June 25, 2011
PRU Monthly Income Plan
A friend bought into this fund for 5% dividend returns per annual.
http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/fundinfo/viewFund.svdo?sedolnumber=PPMIPM
Currently it is selling close to launch price of $1.
From the pricing, there isn't much capital gain to be expected, and thus this fund is purely a dividend play. Dividend payout had been consistent at about 5%
A quick look at the bonds/investments that the fund is holding reveals that majority of them are rated BBB and lower.
At 5% dividend, I feel that the return does not commensurate with the risk. UOB preference shares give 5% dividend as well.
http://www.fundsupermart.com/main/fundinfo/viewFund.svdo?sedolnumber=PPMIPM
Currently it is selling close to launch price of $1.
| Period | 1 yr high | 1 yr low | 3 yr high | 3 yr low | All time high | All time low | ||
| Price (SGD) | 1.02 | 0.96 | 1.02 | 0.7 | 1.05 | 0.7 |
From the pricing, there isn't much capital gain to be expected, and thus this fund is purely a dividend play. Dividend payout had been consistent at about 5%
A quick look at the bonds/investments that the fund is holding reveals that majority of them are rated BBB and lower.
At 5% dividend, I feel that the return does not commensurate with the risk. UOB preference shares give 5% dividend as well.
Thursday, May 26, 2011
15 biggest listed palm oil companies in the world, ranked by market value
Found this old article in reuters back in Mar 2008:
COMPANY MKT CAP^ PRODUCTION TOTAL RSPO
(US$ bln) LAND Member 1 Wilmar (WLIL.SI) 18.7 831,420 573,400 YES 2 Sime Darby (SIME.KL) 15.2* 2,200,000* 560,000* YES 3 IOI Corp (IOIB.KL) 12.9 793,452 220,593 YES 4 Astra Agro (AALI.JK) 5.6 917,885 258,900 NO 5 KL Kepong (KLKK.KL) 5.0 134,981 360,000 YES 6 Golden Agri (GAGR.SI) 3.3 1,608,000 1,300,000 YES 7 Asiatic Dev ASIA.KL 1.7 1,208,140 164,264 YES 8 London Sumatra (LSIP.JK) 1.6 340,015 121,436 YES 9 Bakrie S (UNSP.JK) 0.93 159,773 58,065 YES 10 Boustead (BOUS.KL) 0.85 248,135 89,771 YES 11 Sampoerna Agro (SGRO.JK) 0.81 240,000 73,000 YES 12 United (UTPS.KL) 0.87 192,204 43,325 YES 13 Kulim Bhd (KULM.KL) 0.76 363,750 88,484 YES 14 IJM Plantation (IJMP.KL) 0.70 139,313 63,490 YES 15 Tradewinds (TWSP.KL) 0.61 186,744 126,980 NO
NOTES: Total land includes cultivated and uncultivated
Tuesday, May 17, 2011
Properties with expiring lease
From Straits Time, 14 May 2011
Banks are more stringent on loans for properties that are less than 60 years lease left. Maybe we can get a low price from these properties since the demand for them will be lesser? To find out, I extracted the PSF from propertyguru for reference.
Project / Location / Years left on lease/ PSF
Peace Centre Mansions / Sophia Road / 58 / $731
One Tree Hill Mansions / One Tree Hill / 61 / $1120
Orchard Court / Oxley Road / 61 / $1219
Lutheran Towers / Tan Kim Cheng Road / 62 / $757
Hillcrest Arcadia / Arcadia Road / 63 / $1066
Hollandswood Court / Holland Park / 63 / $745
Townhouse Apartments / Cavenagh Road / 65 / $916
The Arcadia / Arcadia Road / 67 / $1319
Horizon Tower / Leonie Hill Road / 67 / $1237
Orchard Bel Air / Orchard Boulevard / 68 / $1457
Chancery Court / Dunearn Road / 69 / $998
Banks are more stringent on loans for properties that are less than 60 years lease left. Maybe we can get a low price from these properties since the demand for them will be lesser? To find out, I extracted the PSF from propertyguru for reference.
Project / Location / Years left on lease/ PSF
Peace Centre Mansions / Sophia Road / 58 / $731
One Tree Hill Mansions / One Tree Hill / 61 / $1120
Orchard Court / Oxley Road / 61 / $1219
Lutheran Towers / Tan Kim Cheng Road / 62 / $757
Hillcrest Arcadia / Arcadia Road / 63 / $1066
Hollandswood Court / Holland Park / 63 / $745
Townhouse Apartments / Cavenagh Road / 65 / $916
The Arcadia / Arcadia Road / 67 / $1319
Horizon Tower / Leonie Hill Road / 67 / $1237
Orchard Bel Air / Orchard Boulevard / 68 / $1457
Chancery Court / Dunearn Road / 69 / $998
Tuesday, May 3, 2011
Finance Minister Tharman says Global Economy is BAD
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jA5MIBazp1c
Key points:
- Problems of Household debt
- Problems of Govt debt
- China becoming very competitive, not just in the low cost arena, but also high value added arena. China wages rises up rapidly, and productivity, skills, knowledge rising up even faster. India, brazil and eastern european countries also catching up. This increases the risk of stagnation in developed economies
Key points:
- Problems of Household debt
- Problems of Govt debt
- Europe
- US & Japan over-borrowed before crisis. Spent a lot more during crisis. Debt shot thru the roof. Major risk of credit downgrade.
- 1/3 of european banks are short of capital in significant amounts
- Significant proportion of global banks need to renew their debts of $3.5T over the next 2 years
- China becoming very competitive, not just in the low cost arena, but also high value added arena. China wages rises up rapidly, and productivity, skills, knowledge rising up even faster. India, brazil and eastern european countries also catching up. This increases the risk of stagnation in developed economies
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