Wednesday, January 19, 2011

Properties Affected by North-South Expressway (NSE)


Partially Affected (part of their fences, boundary walls and grass verge acquired):
- Castle Green in Yio Chu Kang
- The Nuovo in Yio Chu Kang
- The Seletaris in Sembawang
- Boon View
- Thomson 800
- Tresalveo


Full Acquired
- three-storey freehold homes along Marymount Road

- Marymount Terrace
- 6 terrace house in Jalan Kuak

Industrial estates owned by JTC and HDB in places like Sin Ming and Woodlands will be acquired by the government

Thursday, January 13, 2011

Charles Nenner 2011 updates


Remember his previous predictions of stocks falling to a major low due Christmas Eve? Christmas has since passed, and he had updated his predictions:

  • S&P peak at 1480 at end Jan 2011 in best case scenario
  • He will sell his position if the SPX goes below 1248, or by January 25, whichever occurs first
  • Germany & US will be the equity markets of choice during 2011, while emerging markets are to be avoided 
  • Stock Picks
    • Bank of America - Potential target $14.70
    • Baidu - Potential target $120
    • ExxonMobile 
    • Occidental Petroleum - Potential target another 10%
He is bearish on Aussi dollars and Yen. He is also bearish on Gold (topping around $1,440) and silver (around $31)


Past References:
  1. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/09/charles-nenner-track-record.html
  2. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/08/charles-nenner-updates.html
  3. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/06/charles-nenner-2010-2011-investor.html

Saturday, December 25, 2010

Teachings of Warren Buffett


MBA Talk
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
Part 7 
Part 8
Part 9
Part 10

Key notes:

On Japan
- Not many fantastic companies

On LTCM
- "To make $ that they didn't have and didn't need, they risk what they did have and did need."
- it is foolish to risk something important for something not important, whatever the odds may be.
- Beta of a stock doesn't tell you anything about the risk of the stock.

On Life
- Don't borrow $
- Work for passion not $

On choosing companies
- Choose a business that you understand and you know how it will look like 10 years from now.
- has a moat, esp one that is widening (eg. low cost, brand)
- honest, able management

The Trillion Dollar Bet - LTCM Documentary


Part 1


Part 2


Part 3


Part 5 

Part 3 is mislabeled. It should be Part 4. The actual part 3 which shows the development of the Black Scholes Model and them getting the nobel is missing.

Thursday, December 16, 2010

Quantitative Easing

With U.S printing to the tune of US$600b, and China having been printing $ all along to keep their currency low (see below on how it works), inflationary pressure will inevidently cause the stock market and property prices to keep going up. This is what had been happening. And it will continue to, as long as the money printing continues.

What will possibly burst this bubble is a rise in interest rate. Interest rate in U.S and Japan is at all time low. Although China had started to raise a bit, it is still low (refer to the chart).






As such, China's rate hike poses no big concern for the time being, but needs to be watched to see if it will go up further. Source: http://www.tradingeconomics.com/Economics/Interest-Rate.aspx?Symbol=CNY

China Printing:
- U.S buying China goods (import > exports)
- U.S thus needs to pay renminbi for China goods
- U.S thus needs to buy renminbi to make the payment
- Demand for renminbi will make it more expensive and thus exchange rate will increase
- China thus increase the supply by printing more $ to keep renminbi low.

Wednesday, December 15, 2010

Closer look at JP Morgan's picks

jp morgan had got separate picks:

Stock Price PE PB PCF/
PFCF
Div% PO% QR DE%
olam 3.11 19.1 4.3 14.x/
?
1.43 24.56 0.72 254.1
first resource 1.53 12.3 2.7 10.43/
119.1
1.52 18.17 2.58 45.1
keppel  corp 10.86 13.4 2.8 10.3/
?
3.6 48.04 0.73 41
china minzhong 1.37 7.0 1.6 8.44/
0 0 16.36 0.7


Note: changed price-free-cashflow to price-cashflow as reuters do not seem to publish pfcf for most of the counters.

China Minzhong warrants a closer look.

Check out Citi's call here: http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/12/closer-look-at-some-of-citis-top-picks.html

Kallang Formation

What the coloured regions meant is simply that if there is a significant earthquake from say Indonesian, these regions are at higher probability of sustaining damages.

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