Property and M2

Ms Teh Hooi Ling published an article in the Business Times on 29th Jan 2011, titled "How money grows in Singapore". In the article, she compiled the GDP, M2 money supply and Property Index for Singapore.

M2 money supply includes currency in active circulation, demand deposits of private sector, fixed deposits, savings and other deposits.

From the chart, it seems that property index follows the GDP pretty closely, other than 1997 period where it was well known to have a property bubble which subsequently burst.

Of course, this may not be the cause and effect, but it does make sense that property pricing goes hand in hand with GDP, which goes hand in hand with M2. If this correlation is strong, then the existing property prices seems to be fair, and likely sustainable. 

BP resumes dividend payment

BP announced on 1st Feb 2011 that it will resume dividend payment for Q4 2010.

42cents per ADR to be given on 28th Mar 2011.

Although this is only exactly half of what it used to give before the oil leak crisis, it is nevertheless a good start. And with U.S$ depreciating, it is now cheaper to buy than before.

Link to BP's dividend history: http://www.bp.com/extendedgenericarticle.do?categoryId=9033054&contentId=7060587 (if the link does not work, traverse www.bp.com -> investors -> Shareholder Services -> ADS shareholders -> Dividend History)


Previous post on BP:

1. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/05/bp-plc-adr.html
2. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/06/bp-how-deep-is-deepwater-horizon-oil.html

Online Car Insurance Quotes

Online Insurers seem to offer much lower pricing. These are some of the insurers featured in Straits Time on 30th Jan 2011.


Aviva - http://www.aviva.com.sg/car-insurance/index.html
CompareXpress - http://www.comparexpress.com/
DirectAsia - http://www.directasia.com/onlineinsurance/insurance-online.aspx
Insure2Give - http://www.insure2give.com/

Aviva doesn't seem to offer NCD protector.

I personally chose DirectAsia.

Properties Affected by North-South Expressway (NSE)

Partially Affected (part of their fences, boundary walls and grass verge acquired):
- Castle Green in Yio Chu Kang
- The Nuovo in Yio Chu Kang
- The Seletaris in Sembawang
- Boon View
- Thomson 800
- Tresalveo


Full Acquired
- three-storey freehold homes along Marymount Road

- Marymount Terrace
- 6 terrace house in Jalan Kuak

Industrial estates owned by JTC and HDB in places like Sin Ming and Woodlands will be acquired by the government

Charles Nenner 2011 updates

Remember his previous predictions of stocks falling to a major low due Christmas Eve? Christmas has since passed, and he had updated his predictions:

• S&P peak at 1480 at end Jan 2011 in best case scenario
• He will sell his position if the SPX goes below 1248, or by January 25, whichever occurs first
• Germany & US will be the equity markets of choice during 2011, while emerging markets are to be avoided 
• Stock Picks
• Bank of America - Potential target $14.70
• Baidu - Potential target $120
• ExxonMobile 
• Occidental Petroleum - Potential target another 10%

He is bearish on Aussi dollars and Yen. He is also bearish on Gold (topping around $1,440) and silver (around $31)


Past References:

1. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/09/charles-nenner-track-record.html
2. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/08/charles-nenner-updates.html
3. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/06/charles-nenner-2010-2011-investor.html

Teachings of Warren Buffett

MBA Talk
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
Part 4
Part 5
Part 6
Part 7 
Part 8
Part 9
Part 10

Key notes:

On Japan
- Not many fantastic companies

On LTCM
- "To make $ that they didn't have and didn't need, they risk what they did have and did need."
- it is foolish to risk something important for something not important, whatever the odds may be.
- Beta of a stock doesn't tell you anything about the risk of the stock.

On Life
- Don't borrow $
- Work for passion not $

On choosing companies
- Choose a business that you understand and you know how it will look like 10 years from now.
- has a moat, esp one that is widening (eg. low cost, brand)
- honest, able management

The Trillion Dollar Bet - LTCM Documentary

Part 1


Part 2


Part 3


Part 5 

Part 3 is mislabeled. It should be Part 4. The actual part 3 which shows the development of the Black Scholes Model and them getting the nobel is missing.