Tuesday, August 24, 2010

Peter Lim's stake in Rowsley

These are roughly his transactions, based on what is filed at SGX, and using the average pricing of the days:


date lots price
29-07-2010 4000 0.115
28-07-2010   18000 0.115
27-05-2010   6000 0.1
26-05-2010   4000 0.095
25-05-2010   6000 0.09
24-05-2010   24000 0.1
23-09-2009   58000 0.12

Based on these, Peter Lim's average price would be about $0.112

Highest recent price = 0.15 on 3rd Aug 2010

note: this does not include his stakeholder earlier than 2009.

Saturday, August 21, 2010

Downtown Line Phase 3

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Peter Lim's stake in Informatics


These are roughly his transactions, based on what is filed at SGX, and using the average pricing of the days:

DateAverage PriceLots
4th Aug0.16532000
30th Jul0.13522000
29th Jul0.1219000
27th Jul0.1216000
26th Jul0.120000
23th Jul0.0940000
22th Jul0.0626000

Based on these, Peter Lim's average price would be about $0.112


























   

Sunday, August 15, 2010

Charles Nenner Updates

So far his preditions had been pretty accurate. Check out this previous post: http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/06/charles-nenner-2010-2011-investor.html

Updates in mid July 2010:
  • An intermediate high for stocks later this month (Aug 2010), followed by a late-August slide that retests recent lows
  • A strong rebound into September
  • After September, stocks should fall to a major low due Christmas Eve. Watch for the break of S&P below 1025
  • DOWS will be around 7000 and perhaps overshoot to 5000
  • The economy will not begin to recover until 2020
  •  Stocks to invest in:
    • Lennar (LEN)
    • Toyota Motors (TM) 
    • ExxonMobil (XOM)
    • ConocoPhillips (COP)  
    • ING (ING)
    • Regions Financial (RF)
    • Alcoa (AA)
    • IBM (IBM)
    • Best Buy (BBY)
    • Reuters/Jeffries CRB Index 

Other Charles Nenner Posts:
  1. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2011/01/charles-nenner-2011-updates.html
  2. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/09/charles-nenner-track-record.html
  3. http://sgretailinvestor.blogspot.com/2010/06/charles-nenner-2010-2011-investor.html

Hindenburg Omen

This Hindenburg Omen had been appearing in quite a few blogs recently.

From wikipedia, these are the conditions:
  1. The daily number of NYSE new 52 Week Highs and the daily number of new 52 Week Lows must both be greater than 2.2 percent of total NYSE issues traded that day (currently, greater than or equal to 69, which is above 2.2% of 3126).
  2. The NYSE 10 Week moving average is rising.
  3. The McClellan Oscillator is negative on that same day.
  4. New 52 Week Highs cannot be more than twice the new 52 Week Lows (however it is fine for new 52 Week Lows to be more than double new 52 Week Highs). This condition is absolutely mandatory.
A version of the live chart can be found here: http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYMO&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p20489603975

Saturday, August 14, 2010

High Yield REITS is Best REITS?

Answer is:
- depends on whether the high dividend yield is sustainable

The gap between the dividend yield of a REIT and the yield on newly issued 10yr govt bonds is commonly used to gauge the risk premium of REIT stocks. Typically, a fair value would be 2% over the govt bonds.

Sometimes, the high yield could be achieved via the following financial engineering:
  1. Purchase price of the properties under the REIT to be paid over several installments. Such deferred payments make the yield attractive initially. However, the payment would eventually catch up.
  2. REIT sponsors and managers may elect to pay the fees and price of the assets in units of the REIT instead of cash. This allows more cash to be given out as dividends initially, but the new units would eventually dilute the shareholders.
  3. Usage of "step-up interest rate swaps" where lower cash interest payments in early years and higher cash interest payments in later year. This is usually done to match potential increase in rental income, but if such expected increase did not materialise, the REIT will be burdened by the higher interest rates.
  4. Usage of "distribution entitlement waiver" that waive all or part of the distributions due to them (sponsors and managers) for a limited period.

Another thing to take note off is the remaining leasehold of the properties in the REITs.

Here is a good link to understand REITs: http://home.howstuffworks.com/real-estate/reit1.htm
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